The Measure UUT contest was close. There can be little doubt about that. A 56 vote difference with 293 provisional ballots left to be counted isn't a mathematical lock in any way. But certainly even the most die hard tax increase supporters have to know it will not be an easy deficit to overcome.
Here is how I put it here on The Tattler last Wednesday morning:
Here's the good news. Out of those 293 provisional votes, the YES UUT folks would have to win 175 of them in order to reverse their misery. Or about 60%. This is a mathematical improbability. Our opponents will most likely pick up no more than a net total of 10 votes when the provisional votes are counted next week.
This is nowhere near enough to overcome their current 56 vote deficit. Measure UUT has been defeated. The people have won a great victory.
Or, to view it another way, the No On UUT provisional ballot count would have to be 118 or less for the measure to carry. Out of 293 ballots that would be a highly unlikely result. And should this somehow happen, there would certainly be suspicions of foul play.
Provisional ballots include all vote by mail/absentee ballots delivered to the polls on election day as well as provisionally voted ballots. So you know.
Tomorrow morning at 10AM the last act in the Measure UUT drama will play out. Those provisional ballots will be counted, plus there will be a sample manual count from one precinct. Then it will all be a done deal.
We'll be covering all of this tomorrow morning live from City Hall. See you then.