Monday, April 14, 2014

Measure UUT: What Are The Odds?


The Measure UUT contest was close. There can be little doubt about that. A 56 vote difference with 293 provisional ballots left to be counted isn't a mathematical lock in any way. But certainly even the most die hard tax increase supporters have to know it will not be an easy deficit to overcome.

Here is how I put it here on The Tattler last Wednesday morning:

Here's the good news. Out of those 293 provisional votes, the YES UUT folks would have to win 175 of them in order to reverse their misery. Or about 60%. This is a mathematical improbability. Our opponents will most likely pick up no more than a net total of 10 votes when the provisional votes are counted next week.

This is nowhere near enough to overcome their current 56 vote deficit. Measure UUT has been defeated. The people have won a great victory.

Or, to view it another way, the No On UUT provisional ballot count would have to be 118 or less for the measure to carry. Out of 293 ballots that would be a highly unlikely result. And should this somehow happen, there would certainly be suspicions of foul play.

Provisional ballots include all vote by mail/absentee ballots delivered to the polls on election day as well as provisionally voted ballots. So you know.

Tomorrow morning at 10AM the last act in the Measure UUT drama will play out. Those provisional ballots will be counted, plus there will be a sample manual count from one precinct. Then it will all be a done deal.

We'll be covering all of this tomorrow morning live from City Hall. See you then.

http://sierramadretattler.blogspot.com

34 comments:

  1. Small correction, Mod. Monday is a sample manual count of one precinct, Tuesday, at 10 am is the count of the 293 provisional ballots. Provisional ballots include all vote by mail/absentee ballots delivered to the polls on election day as well as provisionally voted ballots.

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    1. Thanks. I mixed your take into the post.

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  2. same bat place, jc? i am off work this week. i think i'll sit in an mix with the other townies

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    1. shall i bring a generator in case they are taped up. no funds y,know

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    2. I've been told this has been moved to the bandshell in Memorial Park. Cost cutting move.

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  3. I'll be attending the final vote count, too.

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    1. Chris, thank you for taking time to attend the final vote count. What we need are more citizens like you - honest, intelligent, upright, and caring to run for City Council. Thank once again for the past two years.

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  4. were the uncounted votes locked away from the prying fingers of Nancy Walsh and Susan Henderson?

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    1. Smilin' Sue and Cha-Cha, tooApril 14, 2014 at 11:25 AM

      wait, what's this? 293 triple votes for Buc Naked! and all yes on UUT! Wow, that's a co-inky-dink!

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    2. Kind of like drawing to seven straights in a row. I mean, it can happen!

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    3. All ballots are in the hands of Nancy Shollenberger, our City Clerk, who is in charge of the election. Nancy cannot be compromised in any way, she is the most honest person in City Hall and that is why we have elected and reelected her all these years. It will be a great loss when she retires in two years.

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    4. 12:14, that's exactly what I was thinking as I read the blog. Remember all the lies/half truths Karma Bell told about her six years ago in her effort to get elected? Can you imagine the mess City Hall would be in had Nancy lost! Guess I should say Sierra Madre, rather than City Hall.

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  5. the vote is close enough for the "let's tax them more" Council to assume the public wants the tax and do what they can to push it back on the ballot

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    1. I think we can count on this being on the ballot in November. The hope will be that a greater turn out of the governor race will get the casuals out and the UUT increase will pass. Plus you won't have Noah Green on the ballot, which could have helped the tax me crowd.

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    2. plug me in. i'm ready to go. ya noah am

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    3. No vote of the people can stand if City Hall doesn't like the results.

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    4. You ignorant NO folks just need to be educated more. Calling Professor Goss!

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    5. Damn townies.

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    6. Professor Goss will be teaching a course on the history of doorknobs at SMCC this fall. Reserve your place early, this is one that is sure to sell out.

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    7. Maybe Goss will teach this?

      "Whenever the people are well-informed, they can be trusted with their own government;... whenever things get so far wrong as to attract their notice, they may be relied on to set them to rights."
      --Thomas Jefferson to Richard Price, 1789. ME 7:253

      http://politheo.com/thomasjefferson.html

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  6. They need three votes to put it on the ballot. If Goss, Harabedian and Capoccia do it they will seriously endanger their reelection chances...especially Capoccia and Harabedian who have to face the voters in 2 years.

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    1. The municipal employee unions will shower them with money, along with the LA County political machine. All for their great courage and heroism in ignoring two consecutive NO tax hike votes by the people.

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    2. I guess that there should be some type of campaign in a few months to show those that vote Yes that they were mislead and that the facts that were being peddled by Henderson, Walsh and Harabedian were flat out wrong and basically a big ole fib.

      I'm waiting for the library and senior center to close cause that is what was threatened

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  7. we all know that if the No vote prevails, there will be demands of recount

    but if Yes prevails, there will be demands of the silence

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  8. The people's voice means nothing. They will keep having elections until they get the outcome they want.
    I can only pray that John C will say that he respects the people's vote. After all that is what put him in office.
    Wouldn't they need another rate study?

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    1. Rate study? No problem. When it comes to getting more money from the taxpayers, money is no object.

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    2. Rate study? We don't need no stinking rate study.

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    3. The rate study involves them looking at various income levels in town and then deciding how much they can get.

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  9. Now they will have to stop hiring consultants and do the work themselves.

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  10. do you really trust their ability to do arithmetic correctly?

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    1. Yes. But the results shared with us could be different.

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  11. NOT TRUE...

    THE CITY CLERK DOES NOT HAVE THE ENVELOPES>>>

    CITY HALL WOULD NOT GIVE THE ENVELOPES TO THE CITY CLERK!

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  12. charles kissingerApril 15, 2014 at 7:50 PM

    John here is a link to the vanishing of the bees movie at Sierra Madre City Hall April 27 8:00
    https://www.facebook.com/events/523324364444554/?ref_newsfeed_story_type=regular
    any help getting this out would bee appreciated

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