|Repetitive Council Comment Syndrome Sufferer|
While this might have been true at one point, it now appears that is no longer the case. With the reason quite possibly being that buyers no longer see much value in paying premium prices to live in a community choked with mausoleum looking monuments to nouveau riche gaucherie known as McMansions. Even in a place oxymoronically known as the "Beverly Hills of the San Gabriel Valley." Kardashian-style bloated excess and all.
While there could be other contributory factors (the collapsing economy of the Peoples Republic of China comes to mind), the "Preservation Versus Mansionization" dichotomy that we discussed yesterday is certainly playing an important role.
But don't tell the Arcadia "size matters" crowd that.
The following interesting though poorly informed document comes from a handout that was passed around at a Councilmember Sho "Way" Tay sponsored McMansion outreach event that went down recently.
Nicely written and all I suppose, but is it actually true? The available data would tell us that no, it isn't. At least not when you are talking about the resale value of homes both behind the Peacock Veil and in Sierra Madre. And isn't that what people really care about?
There are currently 250 homes for sale in Arcadia, including condos and townhouses. This is around double the normal inventory of homes for sale considered normal in a market of this size, and at any given time. It almost seems like everyone wants to get out of Arcadia at the same time, causing the real estate market there to dissipate rapidly.
Things are now approaching the panic level. People seem to want to get out of there while the getting is good, and prices are now falling fast.
Price reductions have become the new norm for getting a home sold in Arcadia. All while folks in the surrounding communities often experience price bumping multiple offers on their homes from competing hopeful buyers. It is interesting to note why so many existing home owners now want out of Arcadia, which has pushed up the inventory of homes on the market to historic double the normal inventory levels.
Could Johnny GemCoin’s bizarre and embarrassing antics, along with those other two City Council members (Jolly Roger and Way Tay, gents who have obviously sold their teensy souls to development interests), be the straws that broke the camel's back for long time Arcadia home owners? Residents who have now had enough of this city and its corruption and want to get out? Now? Before the next McMansion goes up next door to their single level ranch house?
Is Arcadia really that desirable a place to live anymore? Is it still worth the money?
There are currently 44 brand new homes for sale in the city of Arcadia, each with an average of 123 days on the market. After over 4 months of market time the average brand new (McMansion) home still sits empty and unsold.
The average asking price for these unsold homes, which average 5 bedrooms, 6 baths (paging Dr. Freud) and over 5,000 SQFt., is $3,033,331. Some are much more. 123 on average days on the market (and still unsold) seems to be a long time to sell a home that is supposedly what all of those purported new Arcadia homebuyers are clambering to buy.
As of today, the average time for Arcadia homes of any year (new and older homes) to find a buyer and open escrow is a full 3 months. And the current pending sales of all Arcadia homes now takes 3 months just to find the buyer, not 3 months to close the deal. That takes even longer. Add 30 to 45 days more to finally close and transfer such properties to a new owner.
Compare this to the Sierra Madre average of under 2 months on the market to find a buyer and open escrow. This really is quite a contrast.
This first graphic is the current Zillow data showing the median home sale price in Arcadia over the last several years. In Mid Year 2014 the median Arcadia home sale price was around $1,200,000. Today, and again according to Zillow, the median home sale price there has tumbled to $938,000. A stunning 22% decrease in value for all Arcadia homes.
Here is that Arcadia chart. This is a median chart, and was available on October 3rd.
For an easy contrast, here is the Zillow home value chart for Sierra Madre that we posted yesterday. This is a regular chart, and not a median one. As you can see it is conceivable that, should current trends hold, Sierra Madre home prices could overtake those of Arcadia in the not that distant future. Something that many would have believed inconceivable just a short year or two ago.
Preservation Vs. Mansionization. Think about it. It is a term that should be on the minds of everyone these days.
We'll wrap this up with one more mighty burst of data. What you will see next is homes sold that were built in the years 1900 to 2010. No brand new homes are included in this data. Just existing homes that current homeowners have sold. Not contractor/builder or developer homes built recently with only a profit motive in mind.
The current year 2015 data sheet shows that existing homeowners got an average of $1,554,448 for their homes. We're talking about homes sold between 1/01/15 and 10/04/2015. This represents a stunning $161,309 reduction in Arcadia's existing home values.
Here is the 2014 data.
And here is the 2015 data.