Friday, November 27, 2015

NASA Climatologist: El Niño Has Arrived, Will Be ‘One Storm After Another Like a Conveyor Belt’

Canyon mudflow in 2009
Mod: Since El Nino has now officially replaced Dr. Helene Baribeau as the designated savior of Sierra Madre during its time of water travails, I figured we should start talking about him a little. I can say that, unlike Dr. Baribeau, El Nino has not attended any meetings at City Hall. Meaning he will not be asking for any money above and beyond that which was promised in the original contract. Which, I am pleased to report, was $0. However, we have also not heard from El Nino about mudslides and all the other excitement that usually occurs when he makes an appearance here. Also there is no news if City Hall has broken out its little green, yellow and red flags yet. Or made any other preparations for that matter. The following comes to us from the KTLA website, and it is real scary. You can access it in its original habitat by clicking here.  

NASA Climatologist: El Niño Has Arrived, Will Be ‘One Storm After Another Like a Conveyor Belt’ The National Weather Service’s latest forecast indicated that a powerful El Niño continued to strengthen in October, but a NASA climatologist said the effects likely won’t be felt in California until early next year.

In a report released Thursday, the weather service’s Climate Prediction Center stated the episode is already “strong” and “mature.”

“It’s official. El Niño’s here. It’s a done deal,” Bill Patzert, a climatologist for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told the Los Angeles Times. “So at this point, we’re just waiting for the impacts in California.”

Typically, he said, El Niño doesn’t peak in the state until the first three months of the year. But when it does, the drought-stricken state will likely be hit with “mudslides, heavy rainfall, one storm after another like a conveyor belt,” Patzert told the Times.

Though it has the potential to bring “extreme rainfall” to California, federal forecasters cautioned earlier this year that it may still not be enough to erase four years of drought in the state.

“Seasonal outlooks generally favor below average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation over the northern tier of the United States,” the report stated.

Most models forecast that the current El Niño – predicted to rank among the three strongest episodes on record since 1950 — will continue through the Northern Hemisphere this winter.

Based on the averages of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific between August and October, the current event ranked second to the powerful 1997 El Niño, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Even though El Niño likely will not peak until at least next month, its effects have already been felt around the world for months, a NOAA blog post stated on Thursday.

Among recent events, it was credited with fueling Hurricane Patricia, which made landfall as a Category 5 storm last month and was among the strongest hurricanes ever recorded.

El Niños typically enhance the Pacific’s hurricane season, Emily Becker wrote in the post.

This year, there has already been 21 Category 4 or 5 storms, a record number for the region, Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University told NOAA. The previous record was 17, back in 1997.

Mammoth Mountain even credited the “Godzilla El Niño” for opening ahead of schedule this season. Northern and Central California was hit with nearly 3 feet of snow as a series of pre-winter storms blew through the Sierra Nevada mountains recently.

For now, experts are warning people to start preparing for the possibility of increased precipitation and other effects across the region.

“January and February are just around the corner. If you think you should make preparations, get off the couch and do it now. These storms are imminent,” said Patzert, who predicted the possibility of a “Godzilla El Niño” back in August.

El Niño is here. And it is huge,” he added.

Mod: FEMA would rather you get flood insurance now rather than asking them for cash relief later when your house is buried in a mountain of mud. This from the LA Times.)

FEMA urges Californians to buy flood insurance before El Niño With drenching El Niño rains anticipated to begin more than a month from now, the Federal Emergency Management Agency is urging Californians to buy flood insurance, even if they live in areas of low to moderate risk.

"If there was ever a time to buy flood insurance, this is the time," said Roy Wright, FEMA's deputy associate administrator for insurance and mitigation.

"You cannot get it at the last minute. There's a 30-day wait period for new flood insurance policies to go into effect," Wright told reporters at a Friday press conference.

Traditionally, only one-third to one-half of U.S. residents who live in flood risk areas are covered by flood insurance, according to Wright. Most standard homeowner policies do not cover flood damage.

Californians can obtain information on flood insurance, as well as rate their flood risk, by going to the website FloodSmart.gov.

Earlier this month, Antelope Valley and Lake Hughes residents got a foretaste of the potential havoc El Niño could wreak this winter when heavy rains caused mudslides to bury cars and trucks along Interstate 5 and the 58 Freeway.

Although the downpour was unrelated to El Niño, it demonstrated how four years of drought and widespread wildfires had impaired the land's ability to absorb large amounts of rainfall. Unable to percolate into the soil, the rain raced over the earth, picking up loose soil as it moved to lower elevations.

"It's almost like asphalt," Wright said of parched and fire-scarred earth. "When rain hits, it just conveys straight down very quickly."

Mod: Hmm. That asphalt thing doesn't bode well for the "percolate" theory we hear so much about. Click here for the rest of the story.

sierramadretattler.blogspot.com 

51 comments:

  1. Caroline Brown and I attended a lecture last summer in Eaton Canyon. Bill Patzert presented his prediction for this El Niño to the Sierra Club group.
    It was fascinating. Don't know if Bill has given this presentation here in Sierra Madre...if he does
    I urge everyone to attend.
    Thanks for posting this John Crawford.

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  2. We are about to go from the worst drought ever to the biggest El Nino ever? Mother Nature has become an extremist.

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    Replies
    1. Her temperate moods have been the exception. Extremism is the rule.

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    2. I hear she is good and pissed off.

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    3. She has her reasons. Suffice it to say stay off monastery grounds during the heavier rain episodes.

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    4. The rain in Sierra Madre
      Falls mainly on the Padre

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    5. Mother Nature is not totally to blame. Weather control and chem trails are doing their part to create these extreme weather changes.

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    6. What kind of chem is trailed?

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  3. The rain is too late for many, many trees in Sierra Madre. My guess is around half are gone for good, no matter how much it rains for a few months.
    Less shade, less good air, less habitat for birds. The new land here.

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  4. Truly amazing how deftly the media has been able to sneak this El Nino canard on the unsuspecting public.

    These so-called climate "scientists" are now telling us a lot of rain is coming, but as everyone knows 97+% of climate "scientists" just say things to get grant money for their "studies."

    El Nino is here? I'll wait until reputable sources like the Koch brothers, Murdoch, Crus, Rubio, and Carson tell us what's really happening before I buy an umbrel

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    Replies
    1. I think you are confusing the manipulators of some vast and diabolical conspiracy with the friendly fellow most here have always known as the weatherman. El Nino has been successfully predicted in the past. Nothing new here, except this one is being seen as a bit larger than most.

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    2. So, 11:49, you're actually saying that the same scientific method that brought us automobiles, airplanes, space travel, TVs, the internet, and most of the conveniences of modern life also works on climate science?

      I'll believe it when the Koch brothers, Murdoch, Cruz, Rubio, and Carson says so and not a moment sooner. (Then I'll buy an umbrella.)

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    3. I'm building an ark.

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    4. 11:55 the 1st - then you will be virtually all wet as well.

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    5. The first 11:55 seems somewhat bipolar.

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    6. Funny you mention the ark, 11:55(2). I just saw there was a Nova episode about the ark. Why? Because Nova is now financed by one of the Koch foundations. Expect more dumbing down of science by Nova in the future.

      And while we're at it, say goodbye to National Geographic, which has been purchased by Murdoch. Expect a climate change denial story any month now. So sad.

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    7. You don't like the story of Noah's Ark?

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    8. Though generally progressive in outlook, I just find remakes to be tedious, particularly remakes of disaster stories. So I'll just stay with the original Sumerian flood story. King Ziusudra was quite dashing back in the day.

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    9. 11:42, that's Senator Cruz to you.

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    10. 11:42 wins this year's award for the most unintentionally awesome comment.

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  5. I wish people wouldn't bring national politics to this site. It seems so, well, trite.

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    Replies
    1. Counter-productive.

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    2. Sorry, 12:04, but the mind being dumbed down--whether for economic reasons (Koch/Murdock) and their political proxy (Cruz, Rubio), or simply due to abject narcissistic stupidity (Jenny McCarthy)--is always local.

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    3. Nothing dumbs down a local news site like those foolish people who insist on bringing up irrelevances like national politics.

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    4. All politics is local.

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    5. Who is Jenny McCarthy, I fear to ask.

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    6. 1:45, you can read about Ms. McCarthy in a great book called The Panic Virus.

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    7. Pretty sure our trollish friend is referring to this Jenny McCarthy.
      http://www.ameripublications.com/jenny-mccarthy-criticises-former-co-star-charlie-sheen-after-hiv-announcement/21405
      Tabloid minds and national politics - perfect together.

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    8. Talk about trolling 2:26. Let me explain it to you. This and the previous thread refer in large part to anti-science and its proponents. The McCarthy reference was not to navel gazing celebrity gossip in your link, but was to her anti-scientific anti-vaccine beliefs that she actively foists on the public, many members of which follow her "advice" and putting all of us at risk. (See, e.g., herd immunity.) All politic--and all anti-science--is indeed local.

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    9. Special of you.

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    10. Geez, what grade are you in 3:06?

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    11. The one you never made it to.

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    12. Wow! I've never heard such an original, erudite, and pithy comeback before! Do share some more!

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    13. Obviously you are a glutton for punishment. Sorry, but I am not into those kinds of relationships.

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  6. We all know that chloramines added to the Arcadia water we've been receiving have caused a chemical reaction with our pipes and/or deposits in our pipes, resulting in discolored, smelly water.

    So if El Nino recharges SM's aquifers and we go back to ground water treated with chlorine rather than chloramines, what chemical reaction will then take place in pipes that have been scoured with chloramine water for the last year plus.

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    Replies
    1. Good point 12:09! I suspect the City thinks it will at least arrest the pipes from further leaks. They are our biggest water wasters.
      Also, Keep in mind that the individual allotted units still are in place. So if the wells are full, we still are stuck with our summertime allotted numbers. The fines will remain even if we have water in the wells. Of course, there is no sunset on the unit usage rule. See what the City Council has done!

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  7. Concentrate your efforts on local issues...we can make a difference.....leave world problems to the universe....we can't control insane politicians, or the power hungry bankers and evil Monsanto type corporations that control them .
    These people don't give shit about us. Doesn't matter what political party or persuasion ....they are just the right and left wing of the same bird of prey.

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    Replies
    1. The so-called presidential candidates are just actors engaged in selling the perspectives and agendas of the special interests that own them. Better to concentrate on local issues. At last there you can make a difference.

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    2. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  8. I'm moving to Syria.

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    Replies
    1. Not many heading in that direction lately.

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    2. Hope you like Sharia Law, are not gay, lesbian, transgender or a female without a hijab. You won't last long.

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    3. Sometimes people lose their heads over that stuff.

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    4. It was so much classier when France had the whole place enslaved as a colony.

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    5. France? Can you explain?

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    6. For whatever reason the demented individual at 7:11 appears to believe his statement somehow justifies the recent murders in Paris. Pray for the fool.

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  9. FEMA. Does anything they touch live?

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  10. For starters the catch and release program concerning water falling from the sky is as it has always been since the early 1960's divert it away to the sea. There has been no new settling ponds or spreading grounds built since 1970's SoCal is stuck with old mindsets and technology for dealing with any rain water so how ever much rain falls 2015 - 2016 rain season is yet to appear and it will disappear down the storm drains to the sea once again.

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  11. We need the rain and the Arcadia city government needs cleansing. Leave the doors open at city hall and let Mother Nature do the job for us to sweep away the council.

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