Monday, November 7, 2016

The Nerd War: So Who Is Going To Win Tomorrow Night?

There are four major election prediction sites that most politically astute watchers turn to when they want to know what the future holds.

Nate Silver's 538.com site tends to get most of the attention these days, but he is hardly the only notable statistician around. Indeed, Sam Wang, Larry J. Sabato and Josh Putnam have sometimes proven to be more accurate with their projections.

While many thousands of politically obsessed folks across this great land of ours have taken to habitually refreshing 538.com's voting percentage projections for an inside scoop on who will win tomorrow night, there are also those predictions regarding who will win the Electoral College. Which is somewhat more important since whoever wins that one will then become the next President of the United States.

There are some predictive discrepancies this year between these four notable election statisticians. All of them do have a lot on the line in terms of the soundness of their Electoral College prediction models, along with the state of their reputations for being all-knowing and wise. It really is quite a Nerd War if you think about it.

As of 10pm last night, here is how they're calling 'em. Please note, by the time you see this post all four of these projections will have likely changed a little. For their latest prognostications please check the links I've provided below for updates, both now and throughout the day.

It takes 270 Electoral College votes to win.

Nate Silver (538.com) - (link)
Hillary Clinton: 294 
Donald Trump: 243


Sam Wang (Princeton Election Consortium) - (link)
Hillary Clinton: 323 
Donald Trump: 215


Larry J. Sabato (University of Virginia Center for Politics) - (link)
Hillary Clinton 293
Donald Trump 214
Toss Ups 31


Josh Putnam (Frontloading HQ) - (link)
Hillary Clinton: 340 
Donald Trump: 198 


Of course, the real results won't be known until sometime tomorrow night. We'll let you know if we hear anything before then.

The Los Angeles Times makes their call

Here is how they're seeing it. Link here.


http://sierramadretattler.blogspot.com

109 comments:

  1. Informed and Independent PatriotNovember 7, 2016 at 5:01 AM

    I've got Gary Johnson 2016. I want to be able to look myself in the mirror on Wednesday and for everyday thereafter, for at least the next four years.

    On the other hand, and if you are of the ilk, do note that you can also write in Bernie (Bernard) Sanders with his Veep Tulsi Gabbard on your ballot as well. These votes will, yes actually, be counted as enough electors completed the seemingly byzantine process to allow his "ticket" to qualify for official write-in status. Obviously, do not bubble in other candidates on your ballot but do write in your choices on the available write-in sheet. Evan McMullin (Veep Nathan Johnson) is another official write-in option for our grand state and he might do quite well in Utah. Look into him if you haven't already as well.

    One day left, make your voice heard!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I honestly believe that the patriotic thing to do in this election is to vote for the person who can actually defeat Donald Trump. Trump's statements aligning himself with the likes of Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un makes him either an unwitting accomplice of America's enemies, or an actual traitor.

      Delete
    2. It is not the vote you cast on the 8th that will resonate for one day (please, please don't Nadar this election) but the vote you cast on the 8th that will resonate for the next 40 years.

      It is the Supreme Court you are voting for!!!

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    3. Whatever you do don't let KKK Donald pack the Supreme Court.

      Delete
  2. Gary Johnson blows.. has no real platform or means to achieve it. You can look in the mirror all you want but this election isn't about you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Clinton will win California. For anti-Trump Republicans, Gary Johnson is a suitable protest vote.

      Delete
  3. Let's see if we can follow the trail of breadcrumbs back to Donald Trump's sanity.

    1). No "smoking gun" in the Weiner laptop.

    2). As a matter of fact, most of the emails were duplicates of emails already reviewed by the FBI.

    3). This is proof, in Trump's mind, that the FBI is "rigged."

    4). Twitter YANKED from his tiny orange fingers by his handlers...all of those sweet, sweet tweets being posted by the people who are out to get him, and all he can do is sit back and watch helplessly...

    5). Nope...no sanity here!

    ReplyDelete
  4. With Hillary now having secured the presidency and the very important Supreme Court nomination(s)we can now turn our towards the Marijuana proposition. If it passes I can start growing up to 6 beautiful plants on my property for my personal usage Wednesday.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Regardless of who wins the Trump voters are going to cut loose. That group is so misinformed that they blame Hillary for everything, things that her husband did she gets blamed for it. It seems the Trump group is set on destroying America as we know it. Hope I'm wrong but they are a hate filled group that knows no boundaries.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Like most bullies they will cower when confronted. They will go back to their miserable, unsatisfying jobs in their mosquito infested swamps.

      Delete
    2. And we will continue to fly over them and their swamps while they enjoy their "right to work" jobs with the concomitant artificially low wages and meager safety rules.

      Delete
    3. Bill Handel said this morning that if Trump accused Hillary of killing JFK, his supporters would believe it.

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  6. Senator Al Franken accuses Donald Trump of launching antisemitic TV ad
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/06/senator-al-franken-accuses-donald-trump-of-launching-antisemitic-tv-ad

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  7. Trump all the way. Just like Al Gore, I hope this election will not be stolen from him by way of Electoral numbers.
    The moment in time is now. This Country needs to have some real change in the direction it is heading.
    Independent and confident in my choice for Donald Trump; I am so tired of lying cheating Politicians and their cronies with their hands out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "I am so tired of lying cheating Politicians and their cronies with their hands out."

      Then you'll hate Trump.

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    2. 7:16 - Read and do what 7:23 said.

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    3. 7:16 - Trump won't release his tax returns, filed bankruptcy how many times, took advantage of how many women because he was in a position of power and you will vote for him?

      Delete
  8. Thank Comedian Al Franken for casting his vote on Obama Care; his vote passed it into law. He really should have stuck with comedy, something he knew about.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yes, cause health insurance for 20 million uninsured is WRONG!

      Delete
  9. The Tea Party and the anti-abortionists flipped the Republican Party. People of stong religious conviction regarding the sexual misconduct of Trump would vote for him anyway, snug in their own voting booth privacy, with the goal of overturning Roe vs Wade with the Supreme Court appointments by Trump. Vote Hillary---Vote for the Supreme Court Justice she will appoint (John McCaine be damned!)

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  10. 7:03 am. Can't name just one accomplishment that Hillary has in all her time in office. There are none.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trump University?

      Delete
    2. You don’t have to like Hillary Clinton or her ideas. I get it. She’s a Democrat, a progressive (in most eyes), and conservatives don’t like that. However, you cannot say she does not have any accomplishments. Here are just a few:

      Even though her major initiative, the Clinton healthcare plan, failed (due to Republican obstruction), you cannot deny that it laid ground for what we have today, the Affordable Healthcare Act, something Clinton supports and would continue.
      She played a leading role in the development of State Children’s Health Insurance Program, which provides the much-needed state support for children whose parents cannot afford nor provide them with adequate healthcare coverage.
      She was also instrumental in the creation of the Adoption and Safe Families Act and the Foster Care Independence Act.
      Successfully fought to increase research funding for prostate cancer and asthma at the National Institute of Health (NIH).
      She spearheaded investigations into mental illness plaguing veterans of the Gulf War; we now have a term for it – Gulf War Syndrome.
      At the Department of Justice, she helped create the office on Violence Against Women.
      She was instrumental in securing over $21 billion in funding for the World Trade Center redevelopment.
      Took a leading role in the investigation of health consequences of first responders and drafted the first bill to compensate and offer the health services our first responders deserve (Clinton’s successor in the Senate, Kirsten Gillibrand, passed the bill).
      Was instrumental in working out a bi-partisan compromise to address civil liberty abuses for the renewal of the U.S. Patriot Act.
      Proposed a revival of the New Deal-era Home Owners’ Loan Corporation to help homeowners refinance their mortgages in the wake of the 2008 financial disaster.
      Was a major proponent of sensible diplomacy which brought about a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, and brokered human rights with Burma.
      Oversaw free trade agreements with our allies such as Panama, Colombia, and South Korea.
      Was the most traveled Secretary of State to date.
      The Clinton Foundation, founded by her and her husband, has improved the living conditions for nearly 400 million people in over 180 countries through its Initiative program.
      These are not all of her accomplishments. Her activism on behalf of women a children across the world is renowned. Her activism for raising the minimum wage and combating climate change is stellar. You do not have to support what she does or stands for. But do not say she doesn’t have any accomplishments. The conservatives who say this are the ones who are pushing for Ted Cruz – who brought on a $24 billion shut down. That, to them, is an accomplishment?

      Yes, Hillary Clinton has accomplishments. You don’t have to like them, but they do, in fact, exist.

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    3. 7:29 assumes nobody knows anything because he doesn't.

      Delete
    4. On the contrary, 7:29 actually holds a degree... from Trump University!

      Delete
  11. 7:16 is some what right that this country needs some change, change in the taxing of the people. Right here in Sierra Madre the council can see no other way to fix problems but to tax us more with the UUT. Anyone who thinks Trump will fix our problems is drinking the same Kool-Aid our city council has been pushing on us residents.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Donald Trump’s bromance with Vladimir Putin won’t pay off: There is absolutely nothing to admire about Russia’s economy under Putin
    http://www.salon.com/2016/11/07/donald-trumps-bromance-with-vladimir-putin-wont-pay-off-there-is-absolutely-nothing-to-admire-about-russias-economy-under-putin/

    ReplyDelete
  13. 7:23am. In the LGBTQ community, the "joke" is; LGBTQ/C. The C is for confused. Those individuals that just can't make up their minds. Kinda like casting a vote for the low percenters on the ticket. Trying to have it both ways and not being able to take a stance. "You" really know who you support.

    ReplyDelete
  14. 7:36am. What??? Hillary is the UUT QUEEN. She still needs to pay for Bills Dog House.
    Their Foundation is under investigation from the IRS; although Hillary hooked them up.
    Pay to Play.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trump is a traitor. He is in the pocket of the Russian oligarchs. Owes them millions. Your complaints are minor compared to that. Stand up for America for a change why don't you?

      Delete
  15. Proponents, instrumental, taking a role. Hillary's in the lime light; true. Never misses a photo opportunity or attaching her name to others accomplishments.
    One would think, in the very least; that she should pay her female staffers, the same pay as the men.
    Like I said; Hillary really has no accomplishments after more than 30 years in Public service.

    ReplyDelete
  16. The real test is for the Millenniums and Generation X and how they will make enough money to pay for all that is failing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I understand and even agree with what you are saying. But Trump is not an acceptable alternative. He is an ignorant man given to temper tantrums and acts of meaness. He cannot be allowed access to the nuclear codes.

      Delete
    2. His own staff took away his access to his own twitter account. LOSER!

      Delete
  17. The development of the old monastery property is proceeding as scheduled. The electric poles on the East side of the property are being replaced over the next few days with larger transmission lines to accommodate the projected 50 or so new homes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Holy Smoke! Which is clearly what was blown up the skirts of the faithful who believed the land would be preserved. Dominus Vobiscum.

      Delete
  18. Dont worry, much. Hillary already sold the necessary Uranium to all of the World Leaders; again the Clinton pay to play. Now all the key players have their finger on the Nuclear trigger.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Disproven alt right horse s***.

      Delete
    2. That's nice 9:13 thanks for the reliable info as always.Just wondering where did Hillary get this Uranium she sold? I guess from the Clinton Foundation secret stockpile, or maybe the basement of the Alamo,Dr.Evils stash?

      Delete
    3. 9:13 You forgot to mention how she aided Julius and Ethel Rosenberg in selling nuclear secrets to the USSR. She got away with it, just like the Vince Foster assassination, right?

      Delete
  19. Here is an easy test to determine which presidential candidate should get your vote:

    First, imagine your daughters and sisters at 15 or 16, your mothers and grandmothers at that same age.

    Which candidate would you allow to spend time alone with your teenage relatives? That is the candidate who should receive your vote.

    Any other vote would be perverse and nihilistic.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I wouldn't allow Hillary to get near my kids. Does that answer your question?

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    2. Not really, though it does raise a lot of new ones.

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    3. You certainly answered my question 12:40.

      Like I said, perverse and nihilistic.

      Delete
  20. You had better check the facts of her Canadian pay to play pal and his brokering with World Leaders and their tastes for power. Hillary was the kingpin necessary for the deal. Funny how power and money make fast friends.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes she was one of an international committee of nine with no veto power. Scandalous!

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    2. Funny how trump doesn't have half the money or friends he claims to

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    3. Trump lives on Russian welfare handouts.

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  21. It's not if the adult is going to win, it's by how much. Thank God.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Can't bring myself to support "Max Hedrone" and her fashionista pantsuits.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't worry, when you're old enough to vote you'll be able to think smarter.

      Delete
  23. So, while providing short-term help in the relief of pain, they also wipe out ability and alertness and muddy one's thinking. Grow your Ganja and vote for Granny; seems like she inhales. The children of the 60's rule!

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  24. Man, this country has really gone to s***.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Trump wants to slash SSI. Speaking of granny.

    ReplyDelete
  26. I'm a little sickened by what I read here from both sides. What we face in this country, we need to face together. We have over 19trillion in debt, mainly due to entitlement, benefits and defense. 59.5 million abortions since Roe Vs. Wade. Many, if not most, Black citizens. Over 3 trillion in state and local debt. The debt to GDP ratio is 125%. Interest on this debt if 250 billion dollars just for 2016.Unfunded liabilities, pensions, SS, health are at least 104 trillion. 43 % of our citizens live in poverty, 5 million mfg. jobs lost in the last 16 years, 15 million unemployed. None of this is sustainable. Choices must be made to bring about change. Many of you, especially it seems the progressives, will be uncomfortable with these changes. Which candidate will make these difficult changes/compromises? It means changing pension plans, endowments, health care. So many things. What I read here does not address these problems, much less does it show a need to band together to see that change is made. I don't fear the candidates as much as I fear the people who back them.

    ReplyDelete
  27. The D's and R's have never gotten along. It is only the last decade that who ever is in office can't get anything done because our elected officials are not representing the people. The R's in the last 8 years have fought every move by the D's to take care of some of the problems facing our nation. Is it really going to matter who gets in? How could any woman not vote for Clinton and how could any American male vote for Trump. Trumps supporters are demonstrating their hatred for a female president with total disregard for whats best for the USA.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your first two sentences were quite promising. From there it sorta imploded.

      Delete
    2. A difference in opinion does not make it an implosion.

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    3. I am a woman and I could never vote for Hillary. And I don't believe because a man votes for Trump that he hates women. I think 11:01A has said a lot about the problems "we" face. I'm sorry 11:18A, you are part of the problem.

      Delete
    4. It does when pro-Clinton babble comes burping out.

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    5. If Condoleeza Rice were running, I would vote for her in a minute. I think most men would do so, too. Hillary doesn't answer to those higher values. As for men who would vote for Trump, maybe they're tired of a candidate who covers all the women's issues ad nauseum. I for one am sick and tired of hearing every female candidate wax heavy on women's rights and abortion. Those are important issues but do they affect every citizen the same way? Nope!

      Delete
    6. Imagine women being concerned about equality and equal rights.
      Condoleeza Rice condemned Donald Trump and demanded his withdrawal from the presidential race following obscene remarks about women he made in 2005.
      "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw,” said the former secretary of State in a Facebook post.
      Rice, like many former Bush administration officials, has refused to support Trump, and skipped the 2016 Republican National Convention.

      In her statement, Rice said she hopes Trump is replaced on the ticket by "someone who has the dignity and stature to run for the highest office in the greatest democracy on earth."

      Delete
  28. 7:23am. That Cheese Pizza recipe you're working on is for those New York Rats living on the coast. Your Gal Shrillery ain't going to D.C.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We'll discuss this on Wednesday.

      Delete
    2. Excellent idea, 11:57.

      Delete
  29. Ok 11:01am. Sometimes an adult enters into conversation.
    This voting block is all about how does it make "me" feel.
    Most representatives in office have their hands outstretched; not for helping out, but helping themselves.
    The cry of "drain the swamp " is real.
    The example of vote your gender is stupid.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You haven't had an adult argument yet in all these weeks. Trump guy

      Delete
  30. Trump is toast. His attacks on minorities and women is killing him and his party in the early vote states. We are looking at a historic GOP defeat. It will be devastating.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 12:07-He may be toast. But I have a question for you; Hitler's Fourth Estate. Who do you feel controls the media? And isn't that who Hitler used to gain success?

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    2. Hitler murdered journalists. So does Trumps man love Vladimir Putin.

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    3. Because trump has alienated himself from the media doesn't mean that Hillary controls it. The only thing keeping trump from winning is himself.

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    4. The Republican party did this to itself. It's a pity.

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    5. Trump has had a year and a half of free sweetheart coverage from the media, and it took the media until quite recently either to realize that he's a monster or to realize that its time to stop playing with that monster given the stakes.

      Yes, you have learned from your Trump-daddy that crying and whining can be quite effective, but you can't complain about media bias simply because the abuser was dumped shortly before the prom.

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    6. To the credit of the GOP a lot of its members said no to this living nightmare. Starting with the Bushes.

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    7. The Republicans nominated the only candidate they had that Hillary can beat.

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    8. All the other republican candidates were chumps. Hillary would have crushed them too. Bernie would definitely have crushed Trump

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  31. 9:11am. I hope I can now get cell phone reception above Grandview.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That would be great! I can't get reception N of Orange Grove........

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  32. Prop.61. National significants says Bernie. Ask Bernie why was the Prop written to only help 12% and when can "we" expect Global Medical Research to help fiscally responsible partys to all share in lowering Pharmaceutical costs? The US does the research and everyone else profits.
    Thats why costs are so high.
    PS: Stop using Animals in Research.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Um. Child prop 61 only applies to Calif.Your 12% is very misleading.BTW "Bernie" supports prop 61. The answer to your question "when can "we" expect Global Medical Research to help fiscally responsible partys to all share in lowering Pharmaceutical costs?" Is never.Are you 12 years old? You are really confused

    ReplyDelete
  34. Hillary uses her housekeeper Maria for passing Confidential Information, its the new and improved Washington way; covert at best !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Does she hide microfiche in a pumpkin?

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    2. Trumps out his entire family on the campaign payroll. Nepotism at its worst.

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  35. If you go to the 538.com site you can watch Trump's poll numbers freefall.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Microfich in a pumkin? Only if Maria carries it out of Hillary's house on her way to do dry cleaning.

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    2. For you Trumpie rocket scientists it's FiveThirtyEight.com

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    3. It was a Whittaker Chambers reference. But you're a Trumpie so how would you know?

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  36. Trump/Cruz 2020 - Make America Hate Again

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  37. After Trump loses tomorrow night he will make a complete ass of himself. Watch.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mark Levin Show 870 am .

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    2. That's no prediction. He'll make a complete ass of himself either way!

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  38. Once a spy, always a spy. Be your name Maria or Chambers.
    Or be it "I made a mistake; Hillary".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "I am a traitor Trump." The Alger Hiss of our time.

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    2. It's not like she made a billion dollar mistake like trump did... which America has been paying for since

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  39. lol at the Chump supporters thinking there candidate still has a chance

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We shall overcomb!!!

      Make America grope again!!!

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    2. When this is all over I'm going to put on a really great tie and eat a really great steak at a really great hotel with a really great casino, then play golf at a really great resort before enrolling in a really great university. Thanks Donald for making everything so great already.

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  40. From what I've seen, read, heard, and feel, America is a MUCH MORE ANGRY place than it was a year ago. We can thank both the crook and the crook with the comb over for that.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. actually you can thank the press for click-baiting you all this time.

      Delete
  41. I'll never watch Beyonce bump and grind without having a vision of Hillary. I'd never figured JayZ foe a throw down with her. Katty P. Hates Nuns so her I get. Barrack cant lead, but he knows how ta parrti. Bonjovi and she have the same hair. Seems Hillary needs help getting out her vote. Can you'll spell privilege?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. C'mon. Trump is hanging out with Ted "Pigsticker" Nugent tonight. It isn't Beyonce's fault that Donald is about as popular as cancer with the entertainment community.

      Delete
  42. The party of Emancipation will win.
    The party of "New Deals" to get your vote, will make empty promises.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The GOP hasn't emancipated anybody in over a century.

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    2. trump guy, you need to emancipate your mind - he has playing you for a sucker all year. we keep proving it to you every day. and you keep paying trump to play.

      (sad trombone sound)

      Delete
  43. Joe McCarthy was an embarrassment to his party as much as donald frump.

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  44. Frump will be missed dearly, he had a lot of entertaining values, and SNL will never be the same again... Feel sorry for Melania!

    ReplyDelete
  45. Kardashian/Bieber 2024 - We're Rich - You're Not (✔️Like!)

    ReplyDelete