Sunday, March 22, 2020

Donald Trump starts 2020 in the worst polling position since Harry Truman

Mod: Now you might say Harry Truman did end up winning in 1948, which is fair. But Harry was a Democrat, and the other guy? Just another empty Republican suit.

Donald Trump starts 2020 in the worst polling position since Harry Truman (CNN link): A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 52% to 43% in a general election matchup. An average of all polls this month puts Biden's advantage at a similar 7 points.

What's the point: For all intents and purposes, the general election campaign is underway. Yes, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is still running, but he has no realistic path to winning the Democratic nomination. That means that it's Biden vs. Trump.

And the President starts out in a very unusual place for an incumbent: behind. Trump is the first incumbent president to be trailing at this point in the general election cycle (i.e. late March in the election year) since Harry Truman in 1948.

Now, we're still more than half a year away from the election. It would be easy to dismiss Biden's advantage as meaningless. To do so, however, would be a mistake in my opinion.

Polling at this point in the general election cycle when an incumbent is running is correlated with the ultimate outcome. A candidate in Biden's position would win the popular vote about two-thirds of the time if historical trends hold.

Moreover, there's something to be said about the consistency of Biden's edge. Despite the ever-shifting news cycle, Biden's lead in the average of polls has been between 5 and 10 points throughout the last year. In other words, Trump's general election polling has stayed stable, just like his approval ratings.

This fits a pattern of general election polling being less volatile than it used to be. You saw it in 2018, when Democrats held a consistent edge on the generic congressional ballot, which translated to them taking back the House. The polling at this point in the last two presidential elections in which an incumbent was running matched the final result within 0.3 percentage points.

I can hear some folks saying, "It's the states that matter, not the popular vote." And indeed, Trump is probably in a stronger position in the electoral college than the popular vote alone would suggest.

Still, Biden, at this time, clearly has the advantage in the electoral college. Biden holds leads of 4 points or more in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Add those states together with the states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, and Biden gets more than 270 electoral votes.

This reaffirms something that the 2018 midterms showed: it's very difficult to overcome a 7-point deficit nationally even if you're doing better in the electoral college. If all the states voted the way they did in the 2018 midterms for the House, Biden would easily defeat Trump in the electoral college.

sierramadretattler.blogspot.com 

47 comments:

  1. Good, let it go even lower...

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  2. 45 must go. Nov. 3rd is our time to remove him. We, the people, must act.

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  3. If you don't understand by now how trump lies, is incompetent and blames others for his failures, I am sorry for you!

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  4. As MLK said, "I have a dream" but yours is still unlikely even with all your fine reporting of such relevant news. I think you will stumble just like 2016 with Mrs. Clinton. I think this will provide you with much to talk about during "Home Safe."

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    1. So a couple million dead of the Trump Virus, plus an economy that barely has a pulse, will result in great enthusiasm from the Orange Madman and lead him to a triumphant second term? You need to reason all of this out a little more. Personally, I think Trump will have been removed from office way before the election.

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    2. Trumps polls are going in the toilet, 7:09. Can you tell me what rock you are living under? I wouldn't want to step on it.

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    3. Can someone please put this petulant child in his golf cart & give us a break while the adults deal with #COVIDー19?

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  5. This is watching the Apocalypse in slow motion with no pause or rewind button ...

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  6. Once again a complete fool has launched a foolish attempt to fix another foul up all the while the nation is in crises? Has this one gone mad, again in 2020? It would seem long lost lovers are trying to reunite?
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-writes-to-kim-jong-un-offering-help-in-virus-fight-north-korea-says/ar-BB11wg3x

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  7. Failures of American capitalism are laid bare with Coronavirus pandemic

    As it turns out, American capitalism doesn’t hold up all that well under the stresses and strains of a virulent pandemic.

    In the face of the coronavirus, that stingy “real time delivery” dictum taught in business school to guide how we deploy labor and distribute stuff can be a recipe for needlessly high body counts and wealth destruction on the scale of the Great Depression.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/failures-of-american-capitalism-are-laid-bare-with-coronavirus-pandemic/

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  8. President Trump posted 66 (!) tweets or retweets this morning before 9:30 am DC time.

    Good to see he's keeping busy.

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    1. and that was in between cheezeburger bites!

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    2. What could be more inspiring than the image of our president seated on a golden toilet seat, tweeting and eating a gooey Big Mac? Washington crossing the Delaware has nothing on our guy Donald.

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    3. All while holding his pickle.

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    4. Poor Donald. He is jonesing for another snort of Adderall and a round of golf.

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  9. Fox News Hosts Downplay Coronavirus, but Network Brass Take It Very Seriously, Memo Shows

    In a Thursday memo to staff, obtained by The Daily Beast, Fox News CEO Suzanne Scott and network president Jay Wallace warned employees about the risks of COVID-19, and announced steps the network will take to combat its spread, including telecommuting, reduced in-studio guest bookings, and enhanced office cleanings.

    While the memo called on employees to keep in mind that viewers trust the network to keep them informed in a time of a growing crisis, many of Fox’s most prominent personalities and hosts have repeatedly downplayed and minimized the risks posed by the virus that has already killed dozens of Americans and more than 4,000 people worldwide.

    Earlier this week, Fox Business Network host Trish Regan delivered a breathless bonkers rant in which she described the crisis as “another attempt to impeach” Trump while accusing the “liberal media” of using the disease to “demonize and destroy the president. As she bemoaned the “crescendo” of Democratic hate, an on-air graphic blared “Coronavirus Impeachment Scam.”

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-news-hosts-downplay-coronavirus-but-network-brass-take-it-very-seriously-memo-shows

    One rule for them, another rule for you.

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  10. Netflix: Dirty Money: Jared Kushner, Slumlord Millionaire

    Good watch if you want to work up a good seething rage. One woman, single mom three kids, moved out of one his properties with permission to leave her lease from the property manager. YEARS later Kushner sent his lawyers after this woman for $4000 in "unpaid rent", got the judge to garnish her wages, empties her bank account, even though she had the document saying she could move out, and Kushner's lawyers even wanted the court to send her to jail.

    He's a slimy little scumbag, but we knew that.

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  11. Enough with the trump/pence news conferences, someone else needs to take over the management of this crisis. Neither of them is capable.

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  12. Any of my family dies from this, I will sue this man for keeping a dangerous virus hid from us, this all political for him you can actually hear him.

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    1. 8:33 Understandable to seek justice if you family suffers (hopefully not). Supposedly, neither the President nor the USPS can be sued. While many will want to join a class action suit, lawyers are unlikely to take the case. Our recourse as a nation is electing another candidate. Then he will be sued again and again . That assumes he has not had a heart attack/stroke/fatal tantrum from the stress. Many of us have screamed aloud at hearing or seeing his image.Better screaming than getting an ulcer. Friends in entertainment industry report vomiting over his election and policies. Many hurt by his delays.............delaying for profits/insider info.
      I hope no Californians will receive their CoV test from the company run by Kushner's & Kush friends

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  13. Maybe just let Dr Anthony Fauci run the press conferences? And maybe let him run the presidency while he’s at it? And don’t we have a Surgeon General? Or was he fired?

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    1. Trump needs to be there to remind people of just how completely screwed they are.

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    2. Kaptain Koo Koo unfit.

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  14. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  15. The demon needs to resign and make his way back to Hades with the rest of the damned.

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    1. Lord please send the U.S. a better president!

      I read Micah 3 & 6 for Bible study today 3.22.20 and it hit today’s world dilemma 🎯🎯🎯

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    2. Yes 10:04, I will grant your wish with the appointment of Joe Biden, but you must endure more pain for a while. I am sorry.

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    3. “Therefore you shall have night without vision, And you shall have darkness without divination; The sun shall go down on the prophets, And the day shall be dark for them."

      That's not a happy one.

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  16. I would love to see Trump's college grades, or even his diploma. I would bet that he paid someone to do his work. The man can't even put a coherent sentence together. The only time he sounds close to presidential is when he is reading the script written by others. Then he ruins it by ad libbing, and answering legitimate questions from reporters.

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  17. When the going gets tough, the GOP goes Socialist.

    Sen. Lindsey Graham Says Government Could Underwrite ‘70 Percent’ of U.S. Payroll if Coronavirus Containment Continues
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/sen-lindsey-graham-says-government-192034587.html

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  18. Not one damned nazi repub posting here today, maybe they all converted by now. Can ya imagine anyone still supporting that idiot?

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    1. They're all out this morning looking for toilet paper.

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  19. I guess our elected Republicans in Congress were too busy selling their stock to impeach Crazy Donald.

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  20. Sen. Rand Paul tests positive for coronavirus

    https://www.axios.com/rand-paul-coronavirus-847b3df1-92bc-4ee6-833b-952d16f3ee3f.html

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    1. Wasn't Rand Paul at Mar a Loco for the birthday bash for Don juniors mistress?

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    2. He was going to the gym. Because it was for Congress fools, it was still open. The price of privilege I guess.

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  21. Trump is ‘furious’ with New York Gov. Cuomo because his pandemic press conferences are overshadowing him

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/trump-is-furious-with-new-york-gov-cuomo-because-his-pandemic-press-conferences-are-overshadowing-him/

    Looks like it is going to be a four diaper day for Donald.

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  22. More lucky stars are sighted, Real professional politicians who have more honesty and integrity have risen to the lime light and prospered by telling the truth and leading the people. Dumbo can't complete a sentence with out going wing-nuts with his choice of cheap words. https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Illinois-gov-s-critique-of-fed-virus-response-15149344.php

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  23. I'm wondering when the GOP are going to get rid of him so they can run Pence. They don't want him any more than we do because they know they're going to lose with him but his base is so mesmerized they can't just not support him. They can't let him debate any one because he would lose hands down. We'll have to wait and see.

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  24. I wasted 15 minutes watching the dump press conf, he snarked when reporter informed him of Mitt Romney testing positive. Wow, we’ve got a real nutcase in the White House.

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    1. Where are reports of Romney testing positive?

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    2. He is in self-quarantine after being in some proximity to Rand Paul. The news gave Trump some pleasure at today's press conference.

      Trump after hearing Romney is in self-quarantine: 'Gee, that's too bad'
      https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/488935-trump-after-hearing-romney-is-in-self-quarantine-gee-thats-too-bad

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    3. Most Presidents are too busy doing things to spend 90 minutes a day talking to the press.

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    4. Rand Paul exposed every member of the Senate to the coronavirus. He was in the building every day for the last week.

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  25. President Trump is not going to come to anybody's rescue, and the faster we realize that, the better off we'll be.

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  26. The country is being run by a deadbeat dad. He promises you the world, but when it's time for him to pick you up for his weekend visitation, he never shows up.

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  27. This is the end of American conservatism. Those under 45 who survive through this crisis will neither forget nor forgive.

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