Saturday, May 16, 2020

Politico: Elderly Trump voters dying of coronavirus could cost him in November

Mod: With the CDC now predicting coronavirus deaths will exceed 100,000 by June (link), exactly who is dying becomes a political calculation as well. 

Study: Elderly Trump voters dying of coronavirus could cost him in November (Politico link): Mass casualties from the coronavirus could upend the political landscape in battleground states and shift contests away from President Donald Trump, according to a new analysis.

Academic researchers writing in a little-noticed public administration journal — Administrative Theory & Praxis (link) — conclude that when considering nothing other than the tens of thousands of deaths projected from the virus, demographic shifts alone could be enough to swing crucial states to Joe Biden in the fall.

“The pandemic is going to take a greater toll on the conservative electorate leading into this election — and that’s simply just a calculation of age,” Andrew Johnson, the lead author and a professor of management at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, said in an interview. “The virus is killing more older voters, and in many states that’s the key to a GOP victory.”

Johnson and his colleagues Wendi Pollock and Beth M. Rauhaus projected that even with shelter-in-place orders remaining in effect, about 11,000 more Republicans than Democrats who are 65 and older could die before the election in both Michigan and North Carolina.

In Pennsylvania, should the state return to using only social distancing to fight infections, over 13,000 more Republican than Democratic voters in that age category could be lost.

The study is based on early fatality projections from CovidActNow.org that are orders of magnitude higher than what's borne out so far in battleground states — a point some outside experts have seized on to inject a dose of skepticism in the study’s findings. In an interview, Johnson acknowledged the high numbers used for the study, but he contended it remains early and that easing of stay-at-home orders could spark more cases and deaths.

Mod: More at the Politico link.

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49 comments:

  1. CDC director says that all 12 of their models predict US coronavirus deaths will accelerate in coming weeks and toll will exceed 100,000 by June
    CDC Director Robert Redfield shared the sobering forecasts on Friday
    Said that U.S. deaths, now at 87,000, will hit 100,000 by June 1
    All 12 statistical models tracked by the CDC forecast the grim milestone
    Some models factor in state reopening policies and others do not

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8325209/CDC-director-says-models-predict-coronavirus-deaths-accelerate-coming-weeks.html

    ReplyDelete
  2. Word to the wise but not the meatheads (djt) supporters.
    “The risk is highest in enclosed environments: household, long-term care facilities and public transport,” she wrote. The highest risk is within the first five days of symptoms.
    While casual, short interactions are not the main driver of the epidemic, “keep social distancing."
    Here are some examples of how the coronavirus has spread in the past few months:
    Households: Compared to other contacts, people living in the same house as an infected individual have a higher chance of being infected.
    A study from Shenzhen, China found that 11.2% of household contacts developed COVID-19, compared to 6.6% for all close contacts. Another study from China had similar findings: When checking the contacts of 105 COVID-10-positive individuals, the researchers found 16% of contacts in the same household tested positive for the virus.
    An Illinois woman with symptoms spread the virus to her husband. Of the other 347 actively-monitored close contacts that interacted with these two patients, 43 developed symptoms and none tested positive for the coronavirus.
    Family gatherings: In Chicago, the coronavirus was most likely spread from one infected person to other people — not from the same household — at a funeral in February and a birthday party three days later. Both events were several hours long and the infected individual, who had symptoms, embraced others and shared food. In total, this single individual caused six confirmed and nine probable COVID-19 cases.
    Group gatherings: Public health officials believe that one infected individual spread the virus to choir members in Skagit County, WA. Of the 61 people who were at a 2.5-hour choir practice in early March, there were 32 confirmed and 20 probable COVID-19 cases.
    Restaurants: In a restaurant in Guangzhou, China, one infected individual may have spread the coronavirus to customers at two neighboring tables. The tables overlapped for about an hour. The report’s authors think that infectious droplets spread between the tables via airflow from the restaurant’s air conditioning system.
    Homeless shelters: In early April, tests in a Boston homeless shelter showed that the virus had infected 147 residents, or 36% of the shelter’s population. In San Francisco, more than 100 residents of the MSC-South shelter had been infected by late April.
    So there’s no need to fear the passing stranger — but don’t invite them home.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Small restaurant owners have little choice. Restrict business to take-out, home deliveries or open again seating fewer customers (distancing) or go out of business. They have already lost the cautious segment of their customer base who stay home. We miss being seated at a table while dining out & owners rent is not going down now. Rents have been out of control in SoCal for years. Overall, fewer choices on both sides. Nobody is looking forward to summer 2020.

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  4. So sad about the ppl, I don't care if they are trumps voters they are humans to me and this is horrible.

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    Replies
    1. Donald eats his own.

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    2. u r pleading humanity to the wrong folks on this platform. They wish all trump voters to die with c19 or other calamities. Anyone that disagrees with them must die that's their mentality. Go figure for democratic government.

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    3. and stoopidly smiles while he does no. No love for him.

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    4. Dont feel bad for the trump ppl. They dont feel bad for you. Trust me.

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    5. 9:51 - The suicidal make their own decisions. Seniors who support Trump are either mentally deficient or willingly taking their own lives.

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    6. The unfortunate aspect of older stupid Trump fans dying is that most of them have already procreated. Darwinism does not work this way.

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    7. Yo should check your genealogy 'cause yo might be related to those old stupid Trump fans. Yo know, related to those slave plantation owners, KKK, Indian gynocidal maniacs and all those good old days for the white men.

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  5. Trump has already proven he could care less about human life. Just worried about money. And if not reelected going to jail where he belongs

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  6. Don't listen to trump - your life depends on it.

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    Replies
    1. 9:18 comment is for smart people. All you Dump sheep PLEASE listen to it and inject that disinfect and pound that bleach. Do as he said!!

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    2. You know someone that has injected disinfectant or is it heroine to their bodies?

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    3. I wonder if he has it in him to realize he is getting up there in age and he may get a rise out of causing even more chaos before he ends his presidency, just because he enjoys the endorphin rush. Like, WW3 crazy. I wonder... i honestly wouldnt put it past him...

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    4. Isn't that special that 9:34 is into assisting suicide. Where is your go fund me account?

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    5. 11:11 - The bleach idea sprang screaming from the painted noggin of Der Disinfectant Trumpenfuhrer. Click your heels and beg to be forgiven.

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    6. 11:16 You want to be my Jesus?

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    7. I lack the qualifications.

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  7. Hackers Claim To Have Trump’s Dirty Laundry And Demand $42 Million To Keep Quiet

    A notorious hacking group has claimed to have “dirty laundry” on President Trump and has threatened to publish it next week if one of the biggest cyber-ransoms ever isn’t paid.

    The same hackers that successfully attacked a celebrity New York law firm last week have now claimed to have “a ton of dirty laundry” about President Trump. Those hackers are now demanding a ransom of $42 million (£34.6 million) and have threatened to publish the information they have if this isn’t paid within the next week.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/daveywinder/2020/05/15/hackers-claim-to-have-trumps-dirty-laundry-and-demand-42-million-to-keep-quiet/amp/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. well, everyone keep a lookout for a 24MM transfer this weekend...

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    2. If the ransom is paid, that would mean the Trump cadre was so fearful of what they had that they paid to squelch it. I would guess the hackers will release it anyway. Why not?

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    3. The dirty laundry is aka the Steele Dossier, the final editor's cut.

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    4. Paging Michael Cohen...

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    5. Unfortunately, the hackers won't release the info if they're paid. They need to assure those they hack in the future that payment will result in silence. Otherwise they'll never get paid again. So there is some honor among thieves in the right circumstances.

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    6. Maybe $42 million is enough. You can’t keep doing this forever. Take the cash and dump the documents anyway.

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    7. I hope you're right, 3:50, but not I'm not optimistic--pirates, profiteers, thieves, and capitalists being what they are.

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    8. I'm pretty sure that the DNC can make a secret deal with the hackers for Biden. DNC and Clinton already had paid for the commission for the Steele Dossier in the 2016 election. That will certainly generate news/profits for CNN, MSNBC, talking heads, and voodoo expertise in political affairs.

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    9. I’m pretty sure you’re full of shit.

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  8. Golf Champion Won’t Play Again with Trump

    https://politicalwire.com/2020/05/15/golf-champion-wont-play-again-with-trump/

    “Four-time major champion Rory McIlroy criticized President Trump for his response to the coronavirus outbreak, and said it was unlikely the pair would meet for another round of golf,” Reuters reports.

    Said McIlroy: “We’re in the midst of something that’s pretty serious right now. The fact that he’s trying to politicize it and make it a campaign rally and say that we administer the most tests in the world, like it’s a contest – there’s some stuff that just is terrible.”

    He added: “It’s not the way a leader should act.”

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. oh, so THAT is what brought him around... not all the other stuff over the past three and half years? Oh well, better late than never.

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    2. Never was a leader. No reason why he should start now.

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    3. Trump need not worry. Isn't there a certain lefty pro, who escaped insider trading charges, hired William Singer for college "tutoring" services, and despite wealth in the hundreds of millions whines about paying taxes, who will make a good playing partner for Impeached President Trump?

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  9. Greatest President ever Donald J.Trump.
    Get real the greatest number of deaths of older voters have been out of New York and the insane decision by Democrat officials to put Covid-19 patients back into nursing homes.
    GOP want to get back out into the real world and get back to work. Enough already with the nanny states making a one size fits all health decision when the numbers of people who have died or are sick just don't add up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You should go stand on a street corner with a Confederate flag and a Trump sign so the good people in town can throw things at you.

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    2. Really, 9:53 loser, humor us with some examples of his ‘greatness’. You’ve got all day so think real hard.

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    3. 9:53 showers with his AR, the only appendage that gets some use.

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  10. They are the only ones running around with guns instead of masks.

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  11. The pre-election number Trump's team reportedly fears the most is the COVID-19 'body count'

    President Trump is famously "obsessed with metrics and numerical indications of success," and in the COVID-19 pandemic, he "has few good numbers to point to," Ryan Lizza and Daniel Lippman write at Politico. The U.S. ranks 26th in per capita coronavirus testing but is easily No. 1 in confirmed cases, at 1.4 million. Unemployment is at Great Depression levels, especially in the industrial Midwest that provided Trump's 2016 margin of electoral victory. The stock market is gyrating wildly.

    "Now, in a White House once obsessed with statistical boasts, those close to the president are loath to set any milestones defining a positive outcome," Lizza and Lippman report. "By far the most sensitive subject is the awful reality of the growing death count," currently at 86,000, according to Johns Hopkins University. "I'm not going to play that game," one White House official said. "I think all these body count things are somewhat gross...."

    https://theweek.com/speedreads/914578/preelection-number-trumps-team-reportedly-fears-most-covid19-body-count

    ReplyDelete
  12. HAHAHAHAHA. This is too funny. And pitiful. The most corrupt President in our history is seeking to use the vast power and influence of that office in order to indict the most beyond reproach and squeaky clean President in our history. Yup, in his effort to get re-elected, Trump is going after Obama and trying to have Obama's administration indicted.

    Why is this funny? Because Trump is establishing new precedent; former presidents are now vulnerable to prosecution for their misdeeds while in office. We witnessed George W. Bush escape any prosecutorial action after his administration pursued illegal acts of torture and lied our country into a war with Iraq. But Trump's actions are now making clear that former Presidents can be held accountable. And Biden has stated "no pardon for Trump". Trump doesn't realize he has just opened a can of whoopass on himself.

    HAHAHAHAHA.

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    Replies
    1. One day some lucky lawyer is going to get to write an opposition to Trump's motion to dismiss criminal charges in which that lawyer gets to quote IMPOTUS's own words against him.

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  13. The Lancet, a prestigious medical journal, on Friday ripped President Trump’s “inconsistent and incoherent national response” to the coronavirus pandemic, saying in an unsigned editorial that voters should ensure he does not get a second term.

    “Americans must put a president in the White House come January, 2021, who will understand that public health should not be guided by partisan politics," wrote the peer-reviewed journal founded in 1823.

    The editorial was focused on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the need to revive it from damage during the Trump administration.

    “There is no doubt that the CDC has made mistakes, especially on testing in the early stages of the pandemic,” reads the editorial. “But punishing the agency by marginalising and hobbling it is not the solution.”

    https://thehill.com/homenews/media/498061-the-lancet-blasts-trump-says-voters-should-not-reelect-him

    ReplyDelete
  14. @justinamash
    After much reflection, I’ve concluded that circumstances don’t lend themselves to my success as a candidate for president this year, and therefore I will not be a candidate.

    (Translation: Amash, a patriot, has decided dividing the anti-Trump vote will only help America's enemies.)

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  15. Trump Says Tech Giants Controlled by 'Radical Left,' Vows Action

    President Donald Trump accused Facebook Inc, Twitter Inc and Alphabet Inc’s Google of being controlled by the “Radical Left” and said that his administration is working to remedy what he called an “illegal situation.”

    In a tweet that also mentions the Facebook-owned Instagram, the U.S. president commented on a clip by conservative blogger Michelle Malkin lambasting the so-called deplatforming of conservative voices by technology companies. Trump didn’t elaborate on potential measures targeting the tech giants.

    Malkin in a recent post on her Twitter account said that she would not be taking the “Gates vaccine,” a term often employed online by anti-vaccine activists to refer to the many coronavirus vaccines in development. It refers to Microsoft co-founder and billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-says-tech-giants-controlled-by-radical-left-vows-action/ar-BB14aTdJ?li=BBnbfcL

    Trump is a madman.

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  16. Trump’s Favorite Pastor Paula White Has a Fake Doctorate Degree and a History of Bankruptcy

    https://www.politicalflare.com/2019/11/trumps-favorite-pastor-paula-white-has-a-fake-doctorate-degree-and-a-history-of-bankruptcy/

    Figures.

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  17. This man has Class.
    Barack Obama told this year’s graduates at historically black colleges that the coronavirus pandemic has “torn back the curtain” on the idea that those in charge of the country know what they’re doing. “A lot of them aren’t even pretending to be in charge,” the former president said during a virtual commencement speech, the first of two Obama will deliver on Saturday.
    Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/obama-s-2020-high-school-commencement-special-goes-prime-time

    ReplyDelete
  18. Couple of good tweets out there"

    It’s good to hear full sentences again - thank you President @BarackObama


    That fact that Obama's praise of values like honesty, generosity, and respect for others in his #ObamaCommencement2020 speech feels like an attack on Trump speaks volumes about Trump's complete and utter lack of character.#GraduateTogether

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  19. You all remember that childish out burst by the nut cases in WI, where they want no restrictions on their movements and actions. With no worries about contracting or spreading COVID-29 to their friends and neighbors possibly killing them? Stupid (djt) supporters.
    https://www.postcrescent.com/story/news/2020/05/16/wisconsin-coronavirus-record-number-new-cases-reported-dhs/5205710002/

    ReplyDelete

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